Quarterly figures Q4 2023

Amsterdam housing market: Price level and number of transactions rising, supply remains scarce.
The disappointing addition of new construction to the stock lags significantly behind and does not match housing demand.

The Makelaarsvereniging Amsterdam (MVA) provides facts about the housing market in the city of Amsterdam and its districts.

OFFERING
Developments in supply and asking prices in the municipality of Amsterdam During the fourth quarter of 2023, a total of 1,419 homes were offered to the market by MVA brokers in the municipality of Amsterdam. This is a decrease of 10.8% from a quarter earlier and a decrease of 22.0% from the fourth quarter of 2022. The supply is still declining.

The median asking price of a home increased 6.2% last quarter compared to the third quarter of 2023: from €671,130 to €721,838. Compared to the fourth quarter of 2022, we see an increase of 9.1%. The median asking price per m2 increased 3.1% compared to a quarter earlier. Compared to the fourth quarter in 2022, we see an increase in the median asking price per square meter of 9.5% (from €7,455 to €7,732).

Jerry Wijnen, president MVA: "We see again this quarter that confidence in the housing market is high, despite the turmoil in the world. The growing supply built up in recent months was absorbed by the market last quarter. And it does not look like more supply is going to arrive anytime soon, with the exception of some vacant rental properties. The disappointing addition of new construction to the stock also lags considerably and does not match housing demand."

City districts
Only the city district Center saw an increase in total housing supply compared to the third quarter of last year (9.4%). The decrease in the other city districts ranges from -50.5% in Weesp to -25.2% in West, and the lowest decrease is -12.5% for Amsterdam South. Compared to the third quarter of 2023, an increase is seen for the city districts of Westpoort (+31.9%) and Centrum (+9.4%). The decrease for the other city districts ranges from -7.7% (West) to -39.9% (East). The total housing supply in urban district South remained almost the same compared to the previous quarter.

Looking at absolute numbers, Amsterdam Zuid has the most homes in supply (383) and Westpoort has the least number of homes in supply (4). Weesp, Amsterdam's youngest district, has 38 homes in supply.

The median asking price has increased from last year in all city districts except West (-1.7%) and Weesp (-0.5%). The percentage ranges from +2.0% (New West) to +10.5% (East). Compared to last quarter, the picture is again mixed. Amsterdam Center, Nieuw-West, Westpoort and Weesp show a decrease (between -1.6% and -11.8%), while the other city districts have increased compared to Q3 of 2023. From +9.0% in district South to +3.8% in East.

TRANSACTIONS
Developments in the number of homes sold in the municipality of Amsterdam MVA brokers sold 2,274 homes in the municipality of Amsterdam during the fourth quarter (preliminary figure). This is an increase, both compared to the previous quarter (11.3%) and also compared to the same quarter last year (13.1%, from 2,011 to 2,274 homes). This means that the number of transactions is about the same as two years ago: the counter stood at 2,242 in the fourth quarter of 2021.

The total median transaction price this quarter is €543,008 (preliminary figure), which is an increase of 2.0% over the median transaction price in the same quarter of 2022. The third quarter of 2023 also shows an increase of 2.7%.

The median square footage price shows an increase. Both compared to the fourth quarter of 2022 (7.3%) and also compared to the third quarter of 2023 (3.4%). The median square meter price increased to €7,711.

When we plot median square footage prices against the different housing types compared to the third quarter of 2023, we see an increase for all housing types except detached homes (-10.7%). Semi-detached houses show the largest increase at 17%. Apartments continue to account for the largest share of all transactions: 1,965 out of all 2,274 transactions.

The median square meter price of an apartment rose 7.4% from a year earlier and now stands at €7,994.00.

Sales time in the fourth quarter of 2023 averaged 27 days. That is shorter than the number of days a home was for sale both a quarter earlier and a year earlier.

Transactions city districts
The number of transactions increased in all city districts (between 7% in West and 31% in East), with the exception of Amsterdam South, where the number decreased by 1%. Compared to the third quarter of last year, that picture is numerically similar (between 2% in Center and 35% in Southeast).

(Median) transaction prices are higher for almost all city districts in this fourth quarter of 2023 than in the same quarter of 2022, ranging from 1.5% in Amsterdam East to 7.7% in Weesp. Only district Zuidoost shows a decline of 2.5%. Compared to the third quarter of 2023, we see an increase in all city districts. Ranging from 3.0% in Oost to 13.3% in Centrum.

Price per square meter city districts
Compared to the fourth quarter of 2022, the transaction price per square meter is higher in all city districts, the increase varies between 5.3% in East and 9.1% in Amsterdam North. Compared to last quarter, an increase can be seen in all city districts. That increase ranges between 2.4% (Oost) and 8.7% (Noord) in the same city districts.

Transaction prices versus asking prices
An average of 4.3% above the asking price was paid for a home in the municipality of Amsterdam last quarter. This is an increase from the third quarter of 2023, when an average of 2.5% more was paid for a home. This again widens the difference between the asking and transaction price slightly, but is still closer together than in recent years. Two years ago, in the fourth quarter of 2021, it was 11.7%.

Of the total number of homes sold in the last quarter of 2023, 70% were sold above the asking price. Compared to the previous quarter, this shows a slight increase (in Q3 of 2023, the percentage was 62%). Comparing this with Q4 of 2022, we see the same difference, when 62% of homes were also sold above the asking price.

The rest of the Netherlands also saw an increase in the number of homes sold above asking price compared to Q4 of 2022. In Q4 of 2022 the percentage was 45% in Q4 of 2023 the percentage increased to 53%. Compared to Q3 of 2023, the increase is about the same, at +7%.

Jerry Wijnen, president MVA: "Because supply is declining last quarter anyway, the tightness indicator is dropping again and reaching a worrying level. We see that our 'new' Weesp district is no exception. Because new homes are not available, sellers are also not putting their current homes up for sale and the flow of people is stagnating. The conclusion is that seniors will not move to smaller or ground-floor housing and families cannot move to larger. And young people are staying home longer because housing is simply not available."

In the boroughs, the difference between the asking price and the transaction price is widening compared to the previous quarter. In stadsdeel West, as in the previous quarter and the same period in 2022, the difference between the sales price and the transaction price is the highest at 7.0%. In Amsterdam Center the difference is the smallest with 0.8% and only Weesp shows a decrease of 0.1%.

The percentage of homes sold above the asking price is increasing in all city districts compared to Q3 of 2023. In all city districts the percentage is above 50% this quarter.In Amsterdam Center the percentage in Q4 of 2023 is the lowest at 52% and in Amsterdam West the highest at 82%. Only Weesp shows a decrease of 1% compared to last quarter and the same quarter in 2022.

Tightness indicator
The tightness indicator for the fourth quarter of 2023 in the municipality of Amsterdam is 1.9, lower than the previous quarter and lower than the same period in 2022. The number is still well away from the desirable 5, a number that indicates a healthy housing market.

Viewed by district, with the exception of Center and South, the tightness indicator fell well below 2. In the Center, the choice in housing supply is the widest: 4.0 and in the South 2.3. The least choice is in East where the tightness indicator for last quarter came out at 0.9. This is followed by Noord (1.4), Weesp and West (1.5), New West and Southeast (1.6).

Jerry Wijnen, president MVA: "Economic activity is under pressure and inflation will continue to decline, therefore interest rates will fall. Combined with the increased housing shortage, many people cannot find affordable rental or owner-occupied housing. Especially young singles find it very difficult to enter the housing market. And with the number of rental homes in the free market dwindling, rental prices will continue to rise.
The only way to create a turnaround is large-scale housing construction, but this has been said and written for a while now.
We will really need all parties to meet the building needs. The government is not able to solve this alone. In my view, cooperation with pension funds and private investors is the only solution. It is essential that these parties get clarity and not keep making regulatory changes. I hope we will soon have a new government and that they will start working energetically with public housing, but I am afraid a lot of water will have to flow through the Amstel."