Quarterly figures Q3 2024

Amsterdam housing market: Increased Amsterdam housing market remains overheated. Supply is still insufficient and overbidding remains the order of the day.

The Makelaarsvereniging Amsterdam (MVA) provides facts about the housing market in the city of Amsterdam and its districts.

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Developments in supply and asking prices in the municipality of Amsterdam
The number of homes currently being offered on the market by MVA real estate agents in the municipality of Amsterdam rose by 6% in the third quarter of 2024 compared to the previous quarter, to 1,919 homes. Compared to the same quarter in 2023, the number has also risen, by 21%.

The median asking price for a home in the municipality of Amsterdam fell in the last quarter compared to the second quarter of this year: from €733,693 to €717,353. Compared to the third quarter of 2023, we see an increase of 8.3%.

In the third quarter of 2024, the median asking price per square meter is €7,992. This represents an increase of 1.9% compared to the previous quarter. Looking at the third quarter of 2023, we also see an increase in the median asking price per square meter, namely 6.4%.

Jerry Wijnen, chairman of MVA: "Recent years have taught us that there is usually less supply on the market during the third quarter, but this quarter was different. In Q3 of 2024, we saw that real estate agents actually put more homes up for sale during the holiday months, and buyers were also very active during these months.
We also noticed this quarter that most homes were put on the market at competitive asking prices, which means that the number of overbids is still unprecedentedly high. We hear from the market that home buyers nowadays also assume that they will have to overbid, but this is not the case in all situations."

City districts

The total housing supply in the city districts shows a mixed picture compared to the second quarter of 2024: an increase for Center (11.9%), East (8.8%), West (6.6%), South (6.1%) and Southeast (12.4%); and a decrease in Nieuw-West (-2.9%), North (-2.2%) and Weesp (-10.8%). Compared to the third quarter of 2023, the picture is also mixed. We see an increase in most districts ranging from 14.2% in Amsterdam East to 38.6% in the Center. In New West, North, and Southeast, there has been a decrease of -0.2%, -1.5%, and -7.3%, respectively, compared to the third quarter of last year.

Looking at the absolute numbers, Amsterdam Zuid had the most homes on offer in the past quarter: 481, while Amsterdam Zuidoost had the fewest, namely 53.

In the third quarter of 2024, the median asking price shows an increase for all districts between 4.2% (Nieuw-West) and 14.3% (Amsterdam Zuid) compared to the same quarter last year, with the exception of Amsterdam Centrum, where the asking price has fallen by 10.2%. Compared to the previous quarter, the picture is more varied: a decrease in Amsterdam Centrum, Noord, Oost, and West (between -2.3% and -6.1%) and an increase in Nieuw-West, Weesp, Zuid, and Amsterdam Zuidoost (6.9%, 2.8%, 3.4%, and 1.6%, respectively).

TRANSACTIONS

Developments in the number of homes sold in the municipality of Amsterdam
In the municipality of Amsterdam, MVA real estate agents sold 2,288 homes during the third quarter (provisional figure). This represents an increase of 12.0% compared to the same period in 2023 (from 2,043 to 2,288) and a decrease of 2.1% compared to the previous quarter (from 2,338 to 2,288).

The total median transaction price for this quarter is €617,251, which is an increase of 0.9% compared to the previous quarter and 16.6% compared to the previous year. This transaction price is once again higher than in previous years.

The median price per square meter per transaction in the last quarter was €8,222, which is an increase compared to both the third quarter of 2023 (10.5%) and the second quarter of 2024 (0.3%).

When we look at the median transaction prices per square meter by property type, we see only a 0.3% decline in apartment prices compared to the previous quarter. Compared to a year ago, we see an overall increase in median square meter prices, ranging from 3.2% for semi-detached houses to 18.5% for terraced houses.

Apartments still account for the majority of transactions in the municipality of Amsterdam: 1,974 of the 2,288 transactions. Compared to a year earlier, the number of corner houses sold has increased by 37.1%.

The average selling time in the third quarter of this year was 26 days. That is one day longer than in the second quarter of 2024 and two days shorter than in the same period in 2023.

Transactions by city district

Compared to the previous quarter, the number of transactions for the third quarter of 2024 varies across the city districts, ranging from +17.5% (Weesp) to -
-16.1% (Amsterdam Center). Compared to a year earlier, we see an increase in the number of transactions in all districts. It varies from 6.3% for Amsterdam West to 21.0% for Weesp.

Transaction prices in all districts in the third quarter of 2024 are higher than in the third quarter a year ago, varying between 13.1% (Center) and 19.2% (West). Compared to the second quarter of 2024, we see a decline in the city districts Center (-2.8%), West (-2.4%), and South (-2.5%). In the other city districts, the transaction price rises between 0.9% (Southeast) and 6.5% (Weesp).

Price per square meter in city districts

The transaction price per square meter in the third quarter of 2024 is higher in all districts compared to the same quarter in 2023. The increase compared to Q3 of 2023 ranges from 8.3% in Amsterdam Zuid to 16.6% in Amsterdam Noord. The highest price per square meter is found in the city center, at €9,665, which is higher than the average for the municipality of Amsterdam of €8,222. The lowest transaction price per square meter in the past quarter was found in Amsterdam Southeast (€4,722).

Transaction prices versus asking prices

In the third quarter of 2024, an average of 7.9% above the asking price was paid for a home in the municipality of Amsterdam, while in the previous quarter, 8.6% above the asking price was paid. Compared to the third quarter of 2023, that percentage has risen; at that time, an average of 2.5% more was paid for a home.

Of the total number of homes sold in the third quarter of this year, 80.1% were sold above the asking price. This is a decrease compared to the previous quarter, when the figure was 82.0%. If we compare this figure with the third quarter of 2023, we see an increase, when 62.2% of homes were sold above the asking price.

The rest of the Netherlands has seen a slight increase in the percentage of homes sold above the asking price. In the third quarter of 2024, that percentage was 69%, compared to 68% in the previous quarter and 46% in the same quarter a year ago. While the difference between asking and selling prices appears to remain fairly constant nationwide, we are seeing a slight decline in our region.

Jerry Wijnen, chairman of the MVA: "As previously indicated, overbidding is still the rule rather than the exception. This means that the risk of some buyers paying a purchase price that is disproportionate to the value of the property has not yet disappeared.
The importance of engaging a purchasing agent to gain insight into the most recent transaction data therefore remains as great as ever. It is, of course, important for the buyer not to pay too much for the property, but from a macro perspective, it is also undesirable for the housing market as a whole if properties are being paid for at inflated prices. This may not be a problem at the moment, but it could become a challenge in the long term if these properties are also being purchased with borrowed money."

In all districts, the difference between the selling price and the asking price has increased compared to the second quarter of 2024. The difference between the selling price and the asking price is highest in the West district, at 10.5%.

The percentage of homes sold above the asking price has fallen in all districts compared to Q2 of this year, with the exception of Centrum and West. This percentage is lowest in Weesp, at 63.4%, and highest in West, at 91.6%.

Shortage indicator

The shortage indicator in the municipality of Amsterdam was 2.5 in the past quarter. That is slightly higher than a year ago (2.3). It is still well below the desirable level of 5, which we see in a healthy housing market.

The Centrum district offers the most choice, with a scarcity indicator of 5.3. The least choice is in Amsterdam North, where the scarcity indicator is 1.8. The scarcity indicator is not above 2.6 for any district except the city center. We can conclude that there are still few options for home buyers in most districts. The scarcity in the housing market continues unabated, and competition among buyers remains.

Jerry Wijnen, chairman of the MVA: "At the end of the year, my chairmanship of the MVA will come to an end. By then, I will have been a member of the MVA board for a total of 10 years, the last 6 of which as chairman. During this period, supply has generally declined and demand has increased, resulting in a significant rise in prices.

Politicians have attempted to implement measures that would influence this housing market. I am thinking here of the 40/40/20 rule, the adjustment of the transfer tax, the introduction and abolition of the jubelton, fewer students per dwelling, adjustments to the points system (wws), changes to the tax rules and
the buy-out protection with the associated owner-occupancy requirement.
Unfortunately, we have to conclude that most of the adjustments have not contributed to a better housing market. This is partly because not all plans were equally well thought out, but also because they have deterred investors. Municipalities around Amsterdam have noticed that developers have avoided Amsterdam and moved to neighboring municipalities.

For the foreseeable future, I hope that politicians will bring calm to the housing market and stop coming up with new measures. If they do that, I expect that investors will eventually rediscover Amsterdam. By making sensible choices about the type of new-build homes and conducting neighborhood-focused surveys to identify needs, we can create an undivided city where everyone can feel at home.