Quarterly figures Q1 2024

Amsterdam housing market: Dramatic outlook for the housing seeker. Price levels and number of transactions are rising, but supply still lags.

The Makelaarsvereniging Amsterdam (MVA) provides facts about the housing market in the city of Amsterdam and its districts.

OFFERING
Developments in supply and asking prices in the municipality of Amsterdam
During the first quarter of 2024, a total of 1,399 homes were offered to the market by MVA brokers in the municipality of Amsterdam. This number represents a 3.9% increase over the number one quarter earlier, and a 7.5% decrease from the first quarter of 2023. The supply is still declining, although the decline seems to be slowing a bit.

Compared to the fourth quarter of 2023, the median asking price of a home decreased by 3.1%: from € 739,579 to € 706,978. Compared to a year ago, the first quarter of 2023, we see an increase of 8.2% (from € 638,416 to € 706,978).

The median asking price per square meter decreased by 2.1% from a quarter earlier. Compared to the first quarter of 2023, we see an increase in the median asking price per square meter of 9.1%: from €6,866 to €7,550.

Jerry Wijnen, president MVA: "We see that also this quarter home sellers are putting homes sharply on the market. This results in a higher number of viewers.With increasing consumer confidence, falling interest rates, and also increased wages which has increased borrowing capacity, we are seeing pressure on the housing market and supply drying up."

Urban districts
The total housing supply compared to first quarter of 2023 only urban district Center shows an increase (21.4%). For city district North, it remained almost the same (+0.8%). The decrease in the other city districts ranges from -3.9% in city district West to -39.8% in city district Southeast. Compared to the fourth quarter of 2023, a more varied picture can be seen. A decrease in the city districts of Center (-4.0%), West (-0.5%), South (-7.5%) and Southeast (-11.9%). And an increase in New West (11.2%), North (37.7%) and East (25.5%).

Viewed in absolute numbers, Amsterdam South has the most homes on offer (332) and Southeast the fewest (38).

The median asking price increased from last year in all city districts except North (-1.8%). The positive percentage varies from 0.3% in New West to 16% in Weesp (East 4.0%, West 8.2%, Center 10.8%, South East 11.2%, South 13.5%).
Compared to last quarter, a varying picture can be seen. New West, North, West, South and Southeast show a decrease (between-1.2% and -8.0%), and in the remaining districts an increase is seen in the median asking price (East: 0.9%, Weesp: 2.8% and Center 6.9%).

TRANSACTIONS
Developments in the number of homes sold in the municipality of Amsterdam
In the municipality of Amsterdam, MVA brokers sold 1,536 homes during the first quarter of 2024 (preliminary figure). This is a decrease compared to last quarter (33.2%) and a slight increase (1.0%) compared to the first quarter of 2023. The number of transactions in the first quarter of 2024 is about the same as the first quarters of last year and two years ago (2023: 1,520; 2022: 1,542). The first quarter of the year is usually a quarter where fewer transactions are made.

The total median transaction price this quarter is €552,469 (preliminary figure), which is an increase of 9.5% compared to the median transaction price in the same quarter of 2023. Compared to the fourth quarter of 2023, there is also an increase: 1.9%.

The median transaction price per square meter shows an increase, both compared to the first quarter of 2023 (12.6%), and also compared to the fourth quarter of 2023 (1.7%). The median transaction price per square meter in the first quarter of 2024 was €7,868.

The median transaction prices per square meter of the various housing types all increased from a year earlier (between 3.4% for corner houses and 25.1% for semi-detached houses). Compared to the fourth quarter of 2023, the picture is more erratic, ranging from -5.4% for corner houses to 7.3% for detached houses.

Apartments accounted for the majority of all transactions with 1,336 of 1,536 transactions. The median transaction price per square meter of an apartment rose 13.6% from a year earlier to €8,166.

The average selling time in the first quarter of 2024 was 28 days. That is 22.8% (= 8 days) shorter than in the same quarter a year earlier and 6.1% (= 2 days) longer than in the last quarter of 2023.

Transactions city districts
The number of transactions in the first quarter of 2024 decreased compared to last quarter in all city districts (from -17.8% in the Center to -51.9% in East). Compared to the first quarter of 2023, the picture is more varied: a decrease in city districts North (-24.5%), East (-27.1%) and Southeast (-3.1%) and an increase in Center (24.8%), New West (0.3%), West (3.7%), South (17.7%) and Weesp (12.2%).

(Median) transaction prices are higher for all city districts in this first quarter of 2024 than in the same quarter of 2023, ranging from 5.0% in Amsterdam Southeast to 18.7% in North. Compared to the fourth quarter of 2023, we see a varied picture from -3.6% in South to +9.1% in North.

Transaction price per square meter city districts
Compared to the first quarter of 2023, the transaction price per square meter is higher in all city districts. The increase varies between 6.4% in New West and 15.8% in East. Compared to last quarter, more difference can be seen. A decrease for boroughs New West (-3.6%) and Center (-1.5%) and an increase for the remaining boroughs (ranging from 0.6% in South to 4.1% in North).

Transaction prices versus asking prices
Last quarter, the average price paid for a home in Amsterdam was 4.9% above the asking price. This is slightly higher than the previous quarter and also an increase from the first quarter of 2023 when that percentage was 0.2%.

Of the total number of homes sold in Q1 of 2024, 71.4% were sold above the asking price. Compared to the previous quarter, this shows a slight decrease (in Q4 of 2023, the percentage was 72.3%). Comparing this with the first quarter of 2023, we see a clear difference: then 47.7% of homes were sold above the asking price....

The rest of the Netherlands also saw an increase in the number of homes sold above asking price. In Q1 of 2023, the percentage was 31%; in Q1 of 2024, it rose to 55%.

Jerry Wijnen, president MVA: Due to increasing demand and a lagging housing stock, we see scarcity increasing every year. As a result, more and more homes are being sold above asking price, and this quarter is no exception. One danger, however, is that some buyers are paying too high a purchase price that is disproportionate to the value of the property. In a future sale in a less favorable economic climate, this could pose a problem. I would advise buyers to seek expert advice on one of life's biggest expenses."

In the city districts, the difference between the asking price and the transaction price is widening compared to the previous quarter. In stadsdeel Noord, in the first quarter of 2024, the difference between the sales price and the transaction price is the highest at 7.9%. In Amsterdam Center, the difference is the smallest at 1.6%.

The percentage of homes sold above the asking price is also above 50% in the first quarter of 2024. In this quarter, the percentage increases in all city districts compared to Q4 of 2023, with the exception of district West. In Amsterdam Center the percentage in Q1 of 2024 is the lowest at 52.7% and in Amsterdam East the highest at 84.6%.

Tightness indicator
The tightness indicator for the first quarter of 2024 in the municipality of Amsterdam is 2.7, which is higher than the previous quarter and slightly lower than the same period in 2023. The number is well away from the desirable 5, a number that indicates a healthy housing market....

Viewed by borough, the tightness indicator rose slightly this quarter. In the Center district, the choice in housing supply is the widest at 4.2%. In the West and Southeast districts there is the least choice: 2.0%. The other city districts are as follows: New West 2.5%, North 3.3%, East 2.7% and South and Weesp 2.6%.

Jerry Wijnen, president MVA: "The number of homes a buyer can choose from is far too tight. The population continues to increase, and young and elderly people are being forced to live at home longer. I have felt for some time now that the house seeker, for both rent and for sale, has landed on an ice floe and is drifting very slowly towards the summer.
If there is no intervention by the (local) government, this is really going to go badly wrong.
Doing nothing and leaving everything as it is is is not an option. Too many times we have seen nice policies but no construction activity. Now it really is time for a battle plan, where all solutions must be negotiable: there really must be a lot more building, house-sharing with three residents in one house must be possible, whole properties must be easier to split into apartment rights, topping up homes must become easier, and housing cooperatives must sell more homes so that they can use the proceeds to add more sustainable homes to the stock.
Let's all hope that white smoke will soon come out of The Hague and the various municipalities will also make the sacred cows negotiable."